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Buckle up – it's going to be a bumpy ride

Updated: 7 days ago

Valencia town sign above flood waters

After a week that saw devastating floods in Spain and angry crowds turn on the Spanish King and prime minister, we ask – how is the climate crisis going to affect conflict in the UK? 


The short answer is we don’t know. 


We don’t know exactly where it will affect the UK, how or over what timescale.


But we do know that the climate crisis definitely will affect conflict as regards the UK, both domestically and internationally.


Why?


Because we can see what’s already happening in other parts of the world and – I would argue – we can also see the leading edge of this climate-related conflict starting to appear in the UK, most particularly over immigration.


However, the connection between the climate crisis and conflict isn’t necessarily straightforward and the cause-and-effect has to be teased out.


A ‘threat multiplier’


In security circles, the climate crisis is referred to as a ‘threat multiplier’ or ‘conflict driver’, which means that it’s one factor among several that creates the conditions for conflict to arise, often with violence. So we might need to look at not just the immediate impact of climate events on conflict but the second and third order effects – and possibly beyond.


A case that’s often cited is the role that climate change played in the Syrian civil war.


Syria faced a severe drought from 2006 to 2010, which devastated agriculture, especially in northeastern Syria, where 75% of farms failed and 85% of the livestock perished. 


Around 1.5 million rural Syrians migrated to cities like Damascus and Aleppo, which overwhelmed the urban infrastructure and services, increased competition for jobs and led to higher unemployment, poverty and food insecurity. 


The government response to these challenges was inadequate, so dissatisfaction grew and escalated into widespread and open unrest during the 2011 Arab Spring. This prompted a severe government crackdown, which culminated in civil war.


So a key question, of course, is whether – or how far – climate change was responsible for the drought that kicked off this series of events. That’s contested. 


And it’s also argued that the Syrian government could have responded differently and a civil war could have been avoided. History is full of counterfactuals –  ‘what-ifs’.


But this is the crucial point.


The role of government


It’s in the interplay between environmental/climate factors, societal reaction and, crucially, government response that conflict arises and then escalates, possibly into violence. Or is managed and de-escalates, maybe even resulting in greater collaboration between all those affected.


There’s evidence globally of both dynamics.


The climate crisis is argued to be a key driver of violent conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan, the Lake Chad Basin, Somalia, Yemen and the Sahel Region


Common to all these conflicts is the inadequate or counterproductive response of the central government, which has failed to address the underlying environmental and resource management issues.


This is generally due to a lack of capacity, corruption or existing conflicts along political and social faultlines.


But there are also some success stories. 


In semi-arid Botswana, for example, the government set up the National Water Master Plan to manage water supplies – with fairness – across the country, while working with neighbouring countries to increase collaboration over shared water resources.


Costa Rica, Norway, Rwanda and New Zealand are also cited as positive examples of governments implementing policies to reduce the ‘conflict driver’ effect of the climate crisis.


And the UK?


So which way will the conflict balance tilt in the UK as the climate crisis gathers momentum? 


The UK has strong central government and democratic institutions that uphold the rule of law, so the basics are promising.


Even so, as we saw this summer with the violent anti-immigrant disorder sparked by false rumours over the murder of three young children in Southport, there is a constituency ready to exploit social tensions for political gain. Swift punishment for the guilty has put a lid on things but the tensions remain.


In particular, as the climate crisis develops we can anticipate growing division over climate-related migration and its effects on housing, healthcare and other public services.


We can also anticipate increasing polarisation over political and social attitudes towards the need for (and speed of) the transition to a low-carbon economy. 


As with Brexit, I expect these divisions to run through the country like the letters in a stick of rock. Something as previously uncontroversial as taking a holiday flight to Europe, for example, could soon become a source of argument between couples, friends and families.


Such conflict could be further driven by external shocks beyond the control of any UK actor – for example, disruption to food imports caused by crop failures in far-flung parts of the globe. Or the severe tightening of the insurance market, as the growing scale of natural disasters pushes up premiums and leaves various activities increasingly unaffordable.


And then, as in Spain, we don’t know how people will react towards those in power if and when a climate disaster strikes and the response is found wanting.


In other words, as the climate pressure grows conflict becomes more likely and will appear in unexpected ways, in unexpected arenas. 


Which means that we have to be prepared for it. The question is how.


Everybody loves good neighbours


Well, simple as it might sound – and whatever the government might do – I think the most effective action any of us can take right now is to make or strengthen our connection with the people around us – friends, family, neighbours, colleagues. 


Which is in large part the impetus behind our promotion of creative conversation.


We can’t know the precise form in which climate-related conflict will arise in our particular network of human relationships, but the more bandwidth we can develop with each other, the more likely it is that we’ll be able to collaborate rather than fight when the sh*t really starts to hit the fan.


A whole raft of studies has shown that communities that are more closely bonded are not just more resilient in the face of natural disasters and other challenges; the individuals in those communities tend to be more personally resilient too.


In short, get to know your neighbours. And if you already know them, get to know them better.


It might sound simple – simplistic even. But simple doesn’t mean easy. In fact, for some people making or strengthening connection with others might be the most difficult challenge of all. 


But it might just be what saves us.


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